Trends & research · 2 min read
Which shipping service is actually cheapest? Live rate analysis
Every carrier claims "the cheapest." Here is what the data says across 2,550 US routes and four weight bands, updated monthly.
Carrier marketing is impossible to read objectively. USPS says it is "the affordable choice," UPS says "the best value," FedEx says "reliable and economical." They cannot all be cheapest on every package. We refresh commercial rates from Shippo monthly and calculate which carrier wins what. Here is the answer as of this month.
IThe short answer
- Under 1 lb: USPS Ground Advantage wins 75%+ of routes.
- 1-5 lb: USPS Ground Advantage stays cheapest on most, but UPS Ground Saver wins the coastal long-haul routes (NY to CA, FL to WA).
- 5-20 lb: UPS Ground Saver takes more routes as weight increases. By 20 lb, UPS wins majority of long-haul (1,000+ mile) routes.
- Over 20 lb: Outside our tracking range, but UPS Ground typically wins.
IIWhy USPS stays competitive despite being the smallest carrier
USPS Ground Advantage launched in July 2023, consolidating Priority Mail Retail Ground, First Class Package, and Parcel Select into a single service. The effect: USPS regained competitive pricing on the 2-7 lb band where FedEx SmartPost and UPS SurePost had been cheaper for a decade. Our tracking shows USPS Ground Advantage won 58% of routes for 1 lb packages in 2023 vs. 74% today.
The 2026 reality: USPS is the cheapest carrier for most ecommerce packages. Third-party shipping tools (Stamps.com, Pirate Ship, ShipStation) all quote the same USPS commercial rates, so picking a tool for USPS access alone is not a meaningful discriminator.
IIIWhen UPS beats USPS
- Heavy packages (15+ lb) on long-haul routes. UPS's ground network cost curve is more favorable past 10 lb.
- Oversized packages that exceed USPS's 108 in length + girth limit.
- Packages over 70 lb (USPS hard cap).
- Routes where USPS zone 8 pricing applies (cross-country). UPS Ground Saver sometimes wins these by $1-5.
IVWhen FedEx beats USPS or UPS
Almost never on pure cost. FedEx Ground typically comes in at USPS rates plus $3-8 for residential delivery. FedEx wins on specific use cases: Home Delivery's evening and weekend delivery (USPS does Sundays via Amazon only; UPS adds fees for weekends), guaranteed delivery dates for business shipments, and international via FedEx International Ground.
For pure cost on standard US ecommerce parcels, FedEx is rarely the answer. The exception: dense corridors (California to New York) where FedEx Ground Economy (the rebranded SmartPost-style service) sometimes undercuts USPS Ground Advantage by $0.50-$2 on 1-3 lb packages.
VUpdated rate data
The homepage shows live rates for a New York to Los Angeles sample route across all four weight bands. Every other page on this site draws from the same monthly refresh. If you want the full rate-change timeline, the dashboard below updates monthly.